Operation “Epic Fury” was envisioned as a “lightning strike” intended to subdue the Iranian regime. Instead, it has turned into a perilous stalemate.
Tehran’s reaction did more than just stall the offensive; it exposed the overconfidence of American and Israeli leaders.
The strategy was built on the conviction that Iran was a “house of cards” ready to collapse under military pressure and a subsequent—yet illusory—popular uprising. However, current reality reveals the opposite: the global cost of the conflict is skyrocketing, while the regime appears steadfast.
Similarly, Washington and Tel Aviv base their strategies on distinct and even contradictory assumptions. While Israel seems to tolerate chaos and fragmentation in Iran as a security advantage, the US requires a functional Iran to prevent a global economic collapse and an unprecedented refugee crisis.
The recent history of the Middle East and North Africa demonstrates that it is far easier to destroy a state than to rebuild one. Iraq, Syria, and Libya serve as recent and striking examples of the consequences of power vacuums. The risk of turning Iran into a “Libya on steroids” represents the greatest threat to Western interests, primarily due to economic and migratory implications.
Equally uncomfortable is the position of neighboring Arab countries. With Iranian drones and missiles hitting oil and gas infrastructures across the Gulf, countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and even Qatar are unsuccessfully trying to distance themselves from the American offensive to avoid becoming direct targets, even as they privately long for the end of the Iranian regime.
As Fareed Zakaria observed on CNN’s “GPS,” President Trump’s leadership resembles that of a “jazz musician”: he acts on instinct and tactical improvisation, but without a sheet music (strategy) for the “day after”.
Added to this is the so-called “war of economic attrition,” which favors Iran. The staggering cost difference between Shahed drones and interceptor missiles is a clear example. This “mathematics of destruction” targets more than just a physical objective; it aims primarily at the financial and logistical exhaustion of the adversary.
It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration has considered the “day after.” Meanwhile, Russia and China watch closely, assessing whether the US will become bogged down in the Middle East, thereby weakening its protection of Ukraine and Taiwan.
From an economic standpoint, with the selective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the price of a barrel of oil is reaching levels that threaten the economic stability of Europe and the world. The energy transition itself, once viewed by many as a mere climate goal, has now attained the status of a strategic priority for the West.
The pressing question now is: how to exit this conflict without leaving a regional power vacuum or plunging the world into a recession?
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário